The researchers used the MIT Integrated Global System Model Water Resources System (IGSMWRS) to assess water resources and global needs. The modeling tool also allowed the researchers to measure how climate change and socioeconomics affect water stress.
The study found that population and economic growth are the socioeconomic drivers most responsible for increased water stress, leading to 1.8 billion more people living in arid areas. Of these additional people, 80 percent will live in developing countries.
Climate change, on the other hand, will have a greater impact on the availability of water in industrialized countries, according to the study. 4,444 37 countries are exposed to “extremely high” water stress and consume more than 80 percent of their available water supply each year, according to water stress classifications released last month by the World Resources Institute.
This means that more than 80 percent of the water available to agricultural, domestic and industrial users is extracted annually, according to a WRI blog, which can harm businesses, farms and communities. The blog cites as an example the recent droughts that threatened America’s GDP growth.
The number of people exposed to water stress could double by 2050 unless efforts are made to keep global warming below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels and future population growth is high, according to a study.
This means that by mid-century, another 380 million people could suffer from water shortages, compared to 2010.
Even if the world reaches the Paris Agreement temperature target of keeping warming below 2 ° C and slow population growth, The number of people exposed to water stress could still increase by 50% by 2050 compared to 2010, according to the study.
The increase will focus on the Middle East, North Africa and Central and South Asia, regions already facing significant challenges due to water scarcity, the lead author told Carbon Brief.
